KENYA SLIDES AND JOINS NEIGHBOURS

• KENYA SLIDES AND MATCHES THE REGION’S INSTABILITY
  BY MAKOKHA WANJALA M.
  
  For a long time Kenya had been billed as an island of peace and tranquility in a region surrounded by near failed states and others in various forms of recovery form failed states. In deed around Kenya examples abound of how governments have failed their people and the resultant chaos. But on 27th December 2007, Kenya gallantly marched on into the same predicament that has befallen its neighbours. Paradoxically Kenya has played host to many refugees and financed together with other donors many of the activities to reconstitute the failed states. South Sudan was for all purposes given a safe haven in Kenya, and Somalia’s transitional government was in a big measure brought into existence on the Kenyan soil. How ironical that Kenya’s were now flocking Uganda as refugees. It seemed un-imaginable but that now is a permanent feature of Kenya’s history.
  There are many causes some with a long historical standing and the disputed elections appear a mere tip off. It is still early and it requires research to pinpoint the actual reasons but drawing from the pattern of the post election violence one can safely enumerate the reasons as
  the land problem
  the resource problem
  the ethnic campaign platform
  the mismanaging of elections
  the apparent dominance of some ethnic groups
  the constitution
  the large pool of educated yet un employed youths
  
  The land problem
  Whichever way it is looked at land remains a contentious issue in Kenya. The African culture lays a lot of emphasis on possession of at least a piece of land and nearly all Kenya men aspire to own a piece never mind its location or use. For this reason there is a higher than normal demand for land. Historically through the resettlement schemes that were presided over by Kenyatta’s (Kikuyu) regime ended up settling mainly many of his tribes’ men. That would have been okay but the problem is he literally took the Kikuyus to areas they were never settled before. In many instances government forests had to be cleared to resettle them. In fact one of the hot beds of violence is called “Burnt Forest” which captures what happened. The forest was burn down to resettle mainly the Kikuyu ethnic group. That is a sore that has never healed as many Kenyans feel they has a prior right to lands that were originally theirs or close to their settlements before other groups. Again Kikuyu people have tended to be more enterprising arising from the fact that their populations have exploded and central Kenya could simply not accommodate them. On their own efforts through buying of land they have expanded into virtually the main areas in the country. Un like many Kenyan communities the Kikuyu are matrilineal and therefore their cultures are at variance with all the neighbours they migrate to settle with. For this reason Kikuyu have tended to intermarry mainly among themselves and have therefore not integrated with other communities. It is this way of life that has exposed them to attacks by other communities. So in a way the violence especially in the Great Rift Valley is about land period. The government has all along known the contentious nature of this problem and has in fact appointed a commission to look into the land question. The Ndungu Commission did present its findings but they were too radical and were conveniently shelved. It remains to be seen what the Kofi Annan Team will propose for this is one of the long term issues that must be settled to assure peace and tranquility. One last issuer on the land problem is again to be found in the conflict between individual ownership as opposed to collective communal ownership. Kikuyu have perfected asserting property rights as individuals whilst many of the Kenyan communities see land as a communal resource. They therefore expect land to flow freely from one generation to another of their community to eternity. To such thinking it matters less that you have bought your land. In fact they will view this activity of buying land settling in their midst as intrusion.
  
  The resource problem
  Allocation of government resources has been seen as being skewed towards the Mount Kenya regions. Of course a few examples are sighted to support such claims such as allocation of government funds for water provision and road construction in the 2007/2008 financial years. Again state jobs are seen to have been reserved for the Kikuyu elite. A few governmental institutions such as Kenya Revenue Authority, the Central Bank, and Ministry of education are among those cited. Such perceptions were a recurring message during the political campaigns leading to the elections. Therefore outside the Kikuyu echelons this election was about routing the Kikuyus out of power in all its forms. With such high stakes the option of accepting failure seems not to have existed. It should also be noted that in 2002 when Kibaki took over power his government appeared to have targeted members of the Kalenjin community for sacking from government. This is a pain that reverberates in the Rift Valley that is dominated by the Kalenjins. Added to this is the defeat of a constitutional review process that would have aided in proper and systematic devolution of power and resources in 2006.
  
  The ethnic campaign platform.
  It must be said and has already been alluded to above that the campaigns was a cheroeghaped theatre starring tribal kings who extolled and threatened whatever was appropriate in their quest for votes. The opposition almost to man insisted on how the Kibaki regime had reneged on its promises, privatized corruption to the benefit of one community, and how the elections would have ended all this domination. The Kibaki axis on the other hand asked its folks to protect power. In fact the First lady Lucy Kibaki is on record saying that electing Odinga will lead to tears. Some of Kibaki's men wanted all their people to vote including the sick in fact one Minister stated that only those in the morgue are the ones exempted from voting. Clearly this was a recipe with all ingredients for a disaster.
  
  
  The mismanaging of elections
  There was a gentleman’s agreement normally referred to as IPPG agreement (inter parliamentary parties agreement) that allowed all parties to an election to nominate members to the Electoral Commission of Kenya. This was not effected in law and therefore Kibaki did his duty albeit selfishly and against tenets of democracy by replaced all retiring commissioners in the ECK. Of all the 23 commissioners 21 are his direct appointees. The elections were therefore organized by a body suspected of foul play from the very beginning. The elections were largely peaceful on the actual voting day with record turn outs in most polling stations. All but a quarter of Kibaki’s sitting cabinet were rejected by voters. The tallying for presidential results is done at a central place mainly in Nairobi. This year the central tallying was at KICC right in the centre of the city. Results from constituency tallying centers are normally relayed to the centre by phone for provisional results and later confirmed by a form called 16 A. it is during this tallying process that new votes were manufactured and added to Kibaki’s tally. Agents were denied access to the tallying centre and there are records to show that the votes were topped up in 47 of the 210 constituencies. This was done in not a so clever manner that at one point there was a returning officer on the floor disputing the results being announced by ECK. All these apparent flaws contributed to the eventual declaration that Mwai Kibaki had won by w slight margin of 231,000 votes.
  
  The apparent dominance of some ethnic groups
  Need I say more that is a feeling that is shared by many Kenyans who explain their poverty, hunger, and other vagaries in terms of how the Mount Kenya had been favoured by the state?
  
  The constitution
  Kenya was a single party state and current architecture of the constitution vests all the powers in the President. Examples of such un checked authority include appointing the chief justice, appointing the cabinet (and determining its size) all which lead to winner take it all situation. There is absolutely nothing left if you don’t get the presidency. In fact the president has a minority in parliament but he can rule by creating coalitions of convenience with other minor parties. Therefore the opposition cannot agree to any deal because anything can be overrun by the president and this will be lawful.
  
  The large pool of educated yet un employed youths
  The hot bed of all these were the youths mainly from slum areas. This are educated young people who see no hope in a country known mainly for having some of the most un equal societies in the whole world. Kibera, Mathare are some of the informal settlements that provided the many youths who erupted into violence. The problem of un employment further predisposes young people by making them too eager to join any efforts that they think will result in their empowerment. In the case of Kenya never mind that some of this has been with catastrophic consequences to themselves.
  
  
  So much for the reasons so what really happened
  The electoral commission went ahead and announced the disputed results putting Kibaki ahead. In less than 20 minutes close to 6.30 pm in the evening Mwai Kibaki was sworn in to start his second final five year term. Sporadically violence erupted in Kisumu, Nairobi, Eldoret and other areas. Casualties have been increasing with each day. 30 days later the government has put the death toll at 700. This are bodies that were counted i.e. they were in the morgues. You can safely put the actual death toll at 2100. At first it was violence that was targeted at anything resulting in burning of business premises and cars but no sooner it turned into a tribal feud. Let me emphasize the foreign media erred in typifying this as duel between the Luo and Kikuyu, it is actually most of the communities against the Kikuyu. Violence in some has been reported all over the country except in central Kenya. After some targeting the Kikuyus were evacuated from the Rift Valley. But they too regrouped around Naivasha and begun retaliation that saw more blood being spilt. The violence target both persons and property. It has also taken the form of economic blockade with some firms associated with the President Kibaki’s friends being targeted. Roads, bridges and the railway have been cut off to disrupt free flow of goods and people. All these have been happening under the blockade on live broadcasts and a ban on public rallies imposed by the government.
  
  
  What are the options?
  Several options are being proposed and hopefully being considered by the Annan led mediation team
  create a position of executive prime Minster and hand it to Raila as part of power sharing ( so far Raila has rejected this)
  create a negotiated transitional government to oversee another presidential elections( the best alternative for ODM)
  form a coalition government between PNU and ODM( the government prefers this model, in fact the president has only named half the cabinet meaning the other half could go to ODM, but remember he can as well sack them the next day)
  let the situation play itself out ( the costly but maybe a route that will make Kenyans realize they need each other)
  
  What is the future for Kenya?
  With tourism collapsed, the Nairobi Stock Market has already shed of 40 billions and still heading south. In fact the market traded only for 15 minutes on 29th January to avoid a spiral. With the country practically split into two, with less or no loyalty to the central government. With regional countries such as Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda, Congo, Southern Sudan reeling from the effects of an economic blockade. With many countries with exception of Uganda, Lesotho having not congratulated Kibaki on his win. One gets the impression that things are already bad if not worse. The question is will they get better? Yes they should but no they may not. It all depends on two gentlemen one is called the Hon. Raila Amolo Odinga and the other is Hon. Mwai Kibaki, the third President of the republic of Kenya.